Tossing the Coin

In all fairness, the time has come for Cricket to move past the institution of the toss. It is important to consider how the coin provides an unfair advantage to one team over the other in a game of Cricket. And through that acknowledgement, I present a potential replacement to the toss that might mitigate the inherent bias whilst being mindful of all the affecting factors present in the game.

It is no hidden truth that the cricket might be the game most susceptible to being influenced by the playing conditions that persist around it. Thousands of micro-interactions between factors such as the time of day, weather, dimensions of the field, humidity, wind, dew, etc. make every ball a unique event; with behavior being a consequence of forces that vary instantaneously.

The large part of this impact reflects on the behavior of the "wicket" or "pitch" that is selected for the game. Clear skies with the sun beating down on the wicket results in a drier wicket that plays more predictably and hence, to the wishes of the batsman. Overcast conditions, higher levels of moisture, mean some extra deviation in the air as well as off the wicket making it preferable to the bowlers.

Hence, the toss in cricket, an act that allows the captain to sway the aforementioned conditions in one's favor, remains a criminally under looked point of difference in processing the result of a game.

Being able to bat or bowl with the conditions in your favor is an advantage that cannot be missed. For proof of prevalence of this line of thinking, we needn't look further than the toss data for the recently concluded IPL 2022.

	Decision: Bat First	Decision: Bowl First
Tosses in favor	5	55
Games Won	2	29
Win Percentage	40%	52.73%

In the first 60 games of the IPL, 55 games had seen the side winning the toss choosing to bowl first. That is a whopping 91.67% choice in favor of bowling first. What is the recognized advantage you ask? Dew. Tiny innocuous water droplets that set in on the grassy outfield towards the latter half of the game. This condition is especially prevalent in humid locations such as warm coastal tropics, such as the state of Maharashtra, where the entirety of IPL has taken place so far. Dew forms as ambient temperature drops and hence is more significant as the night progresses.

This moisture on the outfield results in the cricket ball being much harder to control for the side bowling second and justifies the desire to bat instead during these conditions. Statistically, a simple foray into the numbers associated with extras conceded, bowler economy, spinner economy, dropped catches and number of boundaries as compared between innings of a game make the presence of this factor apparent. P.S: An easy flag to detect the presence of dew as a tv viewer is in identifying the number of towels the outfielders are carrying (to dry the ball out) during an innings.

Cricket is just as much a reactive game as it is instinctive; Tuning your instincts to take advantage of conditions prevalent on the day is the name of the game. And the result of the toss, simply with the threat of looming conditions, becomes a coveted psychological advantage that affects each of the players involved. A 12.73% swing in win percentage, as seen above, is nothing to scoff at and I'm sure each player is painfully aware of the potential for the conditions to acutely affect their ability to perform on any given day.

If you're wondering why the previous editions haven't seen quite the same skew in data... It is important to acknowledge the influence of the the most powerful people involved in the world of cricket: the viewing audience. As the game continues to become more commercially viable due to it's ever-growing popularity on the world stage, it embraces changes that up the entertainment factor. Changes that include: shorter boundaries, powerplays (fielder placement restrictions in favor of the batsman), and broadcasting during ideal viewership windows.

Games used to begin at 8 pm, but were found to run past the 12 am mark quite often. And hence, resulted in a change to bring it forward to the 7 pm mark. But this change, further exacerbated the difference in conditions; Dew affected the game more than it did in earlier editions of the IPL simply because a major part of the first innings is too early into the night.

And as the game continues to evolve to match this commercial demand... we have an increasing number of day and night games... which in turn mean more games on the horizon that are going to be affected by the dew disparity. With the toss being so crucial to the outcome of the game, it is imperative that the game evolves into one of a higher level of parity. And one, that doesn't deter the countless intelligent viewers away from the game based on the outcome of a coin toss.

The Solution

Theory:

An auction represents the fairest way to sell anything. The method leaves no ground for criticism and reflects the demands of the product at hand to the fullest extent. Hence, molding the auction template to fit the requirements were the first steps in theory crafting.

Working:

The working is easy to infer if one is familiar with how an auction works. In it's simplest form, the highest bidder wins. And with runs already serving as the fundamental measure of performance in cricket, the model gained a currency that can be levied. By offering runs to the opposition, one can win the rights to choose when they would like to bat or bowl.

Important Considerations:

As seen through this article, there are important considerations to be made that address potential inequalities within the workings of this theory; Considerations that mitigate unfair advantages for one team over the other.

They include:

1) Each teams has a limited purse that is set over the course of a tournament. And runs used in a successful bid would be subtracted from the purse.

Reasoning:

Whilst serving the important purpose of a potential endpoint to the process, this consideration also allows for increased parity among the participating teams over the course of a tournament.

2) Each team comes to the auction with a written first bid. Higher one gets right of first bid.

Reasoning:

An important juncture in scenario development was in removing the advantage a team might gain through the right of the first bid; A sign of intent that allows one to set the tone for assessment of conditions. And hence, by making the first bid a secret comparison, the right is given to the bidder who is more willing.

3) Each team has three bids each to come to a decision. In which case, team with highest bid at the end of bidding wins.

Reasoning:

Ensures there is a definitive end point to the auction process; It was important to not take time away from ultimate spectacle of the game at hand whilst protecting the auction process.

4) Each team decides the playing XI after the result of auction but within a time limit. (eg. 15 mins)

Reasoning:

This allows for either team to cope with conditions better based on information garnered through the auction process; As well as allowing for doctoring the playing XI to take maximum advantage of the conditions local to when they will be employing their skill as well as considering the swing in runs applied.

Advantages of having an Auction:

1) Provide a game that is on a level playing field (metaphorically speaking of course, I'm looking at you Lord's). No one team is left wanting at how they arrived at the outcome of batting / bowling at a certain point in the game. The process should result in both teams feeling like they are on even footing at the start of the game.

2) The process pits the understanding of conditions as an added area of expertise required for success in the game. Which in turn will promote the further foray of analytics in the game.

3) As evidenced by the player auction, there is a significant amount of untapped commercial potential to an event such as this. Can lead to a longer event window and one that need not be affected by the playing conditions.

4) As seen through this article, it is important to not alienate a large portion of intelligent viewers from the game; Viewers that might be extremely fatigued from the idea of toss being an overwhelming advantage to one team over the other.

5) Promote the understanding of conditions as a required knowledge additive to complement the viewing experience; And further the cricketing expertise of the average viewer.

Afterthought:

This is by no means a conclusive idea that is ready to replace the toss today, but one that I hope will challenge the outdated institution that it is. The intention was to start a dialogue that will see us push the game to evolve into a better version of itself; one of greater parity and hence, greater excitement. Through the theory crafting process, I found a lot joy in working out the little chinks that affect this process. This joy is one I hope to share with those that love the game of Cricket in a similar capacity. And there's nothing more I'd appreciate than to hear your thoughts and takeaways from reading this...Do you Cricket is ready to evolve to such an extent? Do you think the Auction theory would work? What does it do well and what could it improve on?